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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Friday, January 17, 2014

Jeff Saut: Buy the dips in the coming months

From Minyanville:
 [I]f we get [my] prescribed rally into month's end, or into early February 2014, it should be accompanied by excessive optimism leading to the typical 5% - 7% pullback over the next three months, and something like a 10% - 12% decline over sometime in the next 12 months. Said anticipated declines should be BOUGHT on the expectance we are now in a new secular (multi-year) bull market. To reiterate, such declines are for BUYING because my sense is that we are in a secular bull market that has years left to run! Yesterday, however, was yet another stutter-step session in this week's manic-depression sequence whereby the equity markets cannot decide between "light and dark." Verily, is the glass half full, or half empty? I think that the glass is half full, which implies, as stated, "Pullbacks are for buying, NOT selling." That said, I think we are involved in the final stages of a short-term upside "blow-off" for equity prices in the very short term. In the ending stages of the 2007 "Tech Bubble," the NASDAQ rallied nearly 40% (like now), energy stocks surged nearly 50% (like now), and housing prices went exponential (like now). If we are about to see another such upside price "blow-off," it should happen between now and mid-February; and, I am a buyer during any such decline. Yesterday, after two days of advances this week, the SPX declined, but the downside conviction of that move was lacking given the accompanying volume characteristics. Accordingly, this morning the pre-opening futures are higher, driven by stronger economic data out of Europe and some decent earnings reports.


  1. Please remind me re:ponzi scheme in the South (capitalized) of course.....where did Madoff work?

  2. Mr. Anonymous - Thanks for responding to my 4 mo. old post. Hmmm. I've got to do something to boost the level of discourse among the members of my vast commentariat.