Final Rosie Post of the Day: Slight Qualification on Recession Call

While the incoming data are pointing to a Q4 U.S. GDP performance at least as good as what we saw in Q3, we share the San Francisco Fed’s view that the big risk is what lies ahead for the first quarter of 2012. But if there is nary a sign of economic contraction at that point, our early call on the recession will be in trouble. ...our view has shelf-life that ends in March