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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Market will drop without more QE come June

The last Vitus Update had a comment about QE and the recent market rise:  
Basically the market is in wait-mode until June, to see if there will be any more QE's coming from the Fed; the current batch runs out then.  A lot of the down-sliding of late in the DOW and S&P is directly attributable to the fact that people are starting to bet that not much more QE will be forthcoming.  If you don't see more QE, you can fuggedaboud 40% of the 100% rise in the averages since March of '09.  Ie, an S&P of about 1050 is quite possible by year-end.
Mish today has a good, detailed post making the same point:
All things considered, but especially jobs, housing, and petroleum usage, there is solid evidence we are in the midst of a stimulus-fed financial recovery as opposed to a recovery in any real sense of the word.

When the stimulus dies, the recovery will die with it.

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